Invitation to a Workshop: Decision Analysis for Systems Engineers - David Strimling

הקינורטקלאב תומדקתמ תויגולונכט ישמתשמ דוגיא

Invitation to a workshop on - אשונב אנדסל הנמזה

Decision Analysis for Systems Engineers

Date	Tuesday 08:45 16/10/2007 ישילש םוי	דעומ
Location	Daniel Hotel, Herzliya	םוקימ
Lecturer	David Strimling	הצרמ

Description:

A hands on workshop that actively engages participants in problem solving and group exercises in the techniques of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) as applied to System Engineering (SE) trade studies. Decision framing, alternative choices definition, preference clarification, and assessment techniques of MCDA will be introduced. Examples taken from the Defense and Telecommunications High Tech industry sectors will be used to motivate learning and attendee participation. A Defense example will address development of a hypothetical armored vehicle weapon station. A Telecommunications example will consider development of an information system that provides emergency support to motor vehicles via a satellite communication link. Other examples from the Aerospace, Bio, and Robotics High Tech industry sectors will be introduced as time permits. Worksheet Templates will be used to implement the hands on application of MCDA to the high-tech design problem.
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Agenda

Hour:	Description/Title
08:45-09:00	Registration and Welcome
09:00-10:15	Overview of the SE Process Systems Analysis Activities in Support of the SE Process Decision Making in the SE Process
10:15-11:45	The Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Process
10:45-11:00	Coffee Break
11:00-12:00	Value Focused Thinking Framing the Decision Goals Hierarchies Practical Group Exercise
12:00-12:40	Identifying and Describing the Choices Practical Group Exercise
12:40-13:40	Lunch
13:40-15:30	Clarifying Preferences Single – Measure Utility Functions (SUF) Practical Group Exercise Relative Importance Weights Practical Group Exercise
15:30-15:45	Refreshment
15:45-16:15	Assessment Results Aggregation Sensitivity Analysis Comparative Analysis Practical Group Exercise
16:15-16:45	Presenting Results
16:45-17:15	Q & A and Closure

Who should attend?

SW, SE managers, R&D managers, Projects managers and practitioners seeking to improve their trade study capabilities.

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About the Workshop:

Detailed Program:
The Decision Analysis for SE Trade Studies workshop is a hands on workshop that actively engages participants in problem solving and group exercises in the techniques of MCDA as applied to SE. Value Focused Thinking, choice definition, preference clarification, and assessment techniques of MCDA will be introduced. A hypothetical high-tech design problem will be used to motivate learning and attendee participation. Worksheet Templates will be used to implement the hands on application of MCDA to the high-tech design problem. Attendees are encouraged to bring decision problems from their work environment for discussion during the workshop.

An overview of the SE Process will be provided as an introductory framework for discussion of systems analysis activities and decision making in the SE Process. The emphasis will be on types of decisions that are required and at what point in the SE Process. Requirements, functional allocation and physical architecture tradeoffs will be discussed. Emphasis will be on physical architecture tradeoffs.

The central theme of the workshop will be the application MCDA to physical architecture SE tradeoffs. The MCDA approach, Multi-Attribute Utility/Value Theory (MAU/VT), will be introduced. Value Focused Thinking (VFT) will be used for decision framing and goals hierarchy development. VFT will be discussed, illustrated and applied to a hypothetical high-tech design problem. Goals hierarchy development will be from both a top-down and bottom-up perspective. Nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio measure scales will be reviewed, and procedures for developing constructed measures will be discussed and applied to the hypothetical high-tech design problem.

VFT will be used to identify decision alternatives. Simulation, modeling and other data gathering methods will be briefly discussed as a means for describing the decision alternatives in terms of the goals hierarchy decision frame.

Standard MAU/VT methods for clarifying preferences among measure levels and decision criteria will be presented. Worksheet Templates will be used to implement the Relative Value Increment (RVI) and Mid-Level Splitting methods for clarifying preferences among measure levels, and Rank Order Centroid (ROC) and Swing Weights (SW) for clarifying preferences among decision criteria. Subject Matter Expert (SME) elicitation protocols and cognitive bias detection and resolution techniques will be addressed.

Additive aggregation schemes will be introduced and post aggregation analyses including sensitivity, comparative, and hybrid solution analysis will be discussed.

About the Instructor:

Mr. David Strimling is the principal consultant, DecisionAiding Ltd and Senior Instructor at Bar Ilan University. He has over 40 years of experience in the application of Operations Research and Decision/Risk Analysis to Systems Engineering in the US at NASA, DoD and General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS). Mr. Strimling is the recipient of the 2006 US National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) Ferguson Award for Excellence in Systems Engineering, the 2006 General Dynamics Technology Excellence Award, the 2006 General Dynamics Engineer of the Year Award, and was a 2006 nominee for the INCOSE Pioneer Award. Mr. Strimling was recently honored with the Best Paper Award of the Fourth National Conference of INCOSE_IL.