קבוצת עבודה ניהול סיכונים

סוג הפעילות

קבוצות עניין

מועד הפעילות

07/10/13

מקום הפעילות

בית חיל האוויר , הרצליה מפה מצורפת

תיאור המפגש

Successful engineering of today’s systems requires deliberate and continuous attention to the management of uncertainty. Managing uncertainty is an activity that improves the chance that today’s complex systems and SoS (system of systems) will be completed on time, within budget, and at performance expectations. In order to manage uncertainty, we must clearly identify and understand several factors:

  • The key uncertainties that can affect system design.
  • The alternative courses of action available to us – i.e., the decisions which are ours to make.


Scope

Assessment methods based on assumptions about future conditions or based on scoring methods that rate the severity of uncertainty factors on an ordinal scale are widely used and frequently perceived by users to have value. There is substantial evidence that these methods are faulty. In today’s complex environment, one must understand the probabilities associated with various possible scenarios – the “cone of uncertainty” that expands into the future – and position oneself to thrive under a variety of possible futures. Rather than trying to predict what is going to happen, one should consider all the things that might happen, and how likely each of those scenarios is. In short, one must think probabilistically.

Today’s Systems Engineering analysts need to be aware of the strengths and weaknesses of various analysis tools, the appropriate and inappropriate uses of certain statistics, and traps to avoid when interpreting results of probabilistic analyses. Human psychological weaknesses when making decisions in the face of uncertainty should be openly recognized and dealt with explicitly. Risk attitude should be applied at the mitigation portfolio level, not at the individual mitigation plan level. Proper tracking metrics need to be established to control the important uncertainties. Decisions to acquire additional information should be based on whether value-of-information (VOI) analyses indicate that the information adds value to the system design, not on whether the information makes the decision maker more comfortable with the decision.

Fortunately, modern tools and technology make probabilistic analyses fairly easy to do. Unfortunately, they make them equally easy to do poorly. There is also a danger that the decision maker will rely on the probabilistic model to make the decision for him/her. Experience, judgment, and wisdom will always be needed as well. Combining these attributes with probabilistic thinking creates a powerful approach to managing uncertainty in today’s complex world.

סדר היום:

14:00-14:15

Registration

14:15-15:45

Risk Assessment: Alternative Approaches, Probabilistic Thinking, Value Functions.

15:45-16:00

Refreshment Break

16:00-17:00

Risk Management: Measuring Progress, Allocating Resources, Risk Attitude at the Mitigation Portfolio Level, Value-of-Information (VOI) analysis, Implementation (influencing system design

הערות

נושא הפגישה - Probabilistic Thinking in Risk Management and its influence on System Design

בברכה

משה סלם - מנכ"ל אילטם
ד"ר משה ויילר - יו"ר הקבוצה